Best The Storm Before the Calm: America's Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond By George Friedman

Best The Storm Before the Calm: America's Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond By George Friedman

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The Storm Before the Calm: America's Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond-George Friedman

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*One of Bloomberg's Best Books of the Year*The master geopolitical forecaster and New York Times bestselling author of The Next 100 Years focuses on the United States, predicting how the 2020s will bring dramatic upheaval and reshaping of American government, foreign policy, economics, and culture. In his riveting new book, noted forecaster and bestselling author George Friedman turns to the future of the United States. Examining the clear cycles through which the United States has developed, upheaved, matured, and solidified, Friedman breaks down the coming years and decades in thrilling detail.     American history must be viewed in cycles—particularly, an eighty-year "institutional cycle" that has defined us (there are three such examples—the Revolutionary War/founding, the Civil War, and World War II), and a fifty-year "socio-economic cycle" that has seen the formation of the industrial classes, baby boomers, and the middle classes. These two major cycles are both converging on the late 2020s—a time in which many of these foundations will change. The United States will have to endure upheaval and possible conflict, but also, ultimately, increased strength, stability, and power in the world.     Friedman's analysis is detailed and fascinating, and covers issues such as the size and scope of the federal government, the future of marriage and the social contract, shifts in corporate structures, and new cultural trends that will react to longer life expectancies. This new book is both provocative and entertaining.

Book The Storm Before the Calm: America's Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond Review :



Both sides of the political divide in the United States acknowledge how rancorous the past several years have been, even if they agree on little else. To many, it appears that the tension is unprecedented and that the country itself is coming apart. In "The Storm Before the Calm," author George Friedman uses history to show otherwise—not only has political disagreement and violence been even worse in past eras, but this turmoil is a normal part of the cycles he describes in the book that enable the United States to evolve and grow.Friedman asserts that America experiences two types of cycles on a recurring basis—institutional cycles that last roughly 80 years and socioeconomic cycles that last roughly 50 years. There is turbulence at the end of a cycle and the beginning of a new one, and Friedman thinks that the Twenties will be especially stormy because for the first time in American history, both cycles are ending within a few years of each other—the institutional around 2025 and the socioeconomic around 2030.The author steps back to look at the country's creation, noting that invention, technology, and questioning existing premises were essential to both the founding of the country and its subsequent growth. Geography also influenced our development, and that is recalled as well.Those who have read other books by historians about cycles of history may be initially skeptical about the cycles that Friedman refers to, but the author recounts convincingly each of the 80-year institutional and 50-year socioeconomic cycles that have occurred, including the ones that are nearing their end now. He describes how cycles begin, have a golden age at their zenith, and then decline, and offers his opinion on what will happen as we get closer to 2030 as both of our current cycles end and new ones begin.As a first-class prognosticator, he even guesses at the nature of the new cycles and what will be the causes of the declines of the next socioeconomic cycle that will end around 2080 and the next institutional cycle that will end around 2105. In the twenty-first century, the United States must learn to wield its power more efficiently and effectively without resorting to military force, the author suggests, and also looks at the fields of technology, education, and energy, and how they will affect (and be affected by) upcoming decades.Friedman is an original thinker with striking observations, and if you have read his previous books you will obviously enjoy this one as well. The volume is ultimately reassuring, reminding the reader that the storms that the country goes through are temporary and even necessary, as the United States always grows out of them. There is intense focus on this year’s presidential election, but "The Storm Before the Calm" invites the reader to take a longer view—that there are storms, but the next golden age, always more golden than the last golden age, is still in the future.
This book is essential reading. It is concise yet has a clear depth. It resonates with the theories proposed in the 4th Turning and yet offers a clearer picture of where we have come from and the direction we are going. Once again, we live in a time of outrage and the social, political and economic storm has the potential for gale warnings. How we adapt and cope is up to us. For historical comparisons with this books view on the first cycles, I suggest a book titled Braddocks Defeat by David L. Preston, first published in 2015 and contains new primary material and sources. I also suggest Prelude to Independence by Arthur M. Schlesinger, published in 1957. Both books are well balanced and provide essential historical detail that supports the Thesis of the first Institutional and Economic Cycles.Lastly, George Friedman has produced another first class analysis in book form.The book is a total of 229 pages. It is divided I into three sections for a total of 11 chapters and a conclusion. Part 1, in three chapters will give you a high level historical view of the invention of America. Part 2 details how America has adapted in the past, how geopolitics will frame 2020, and the remains two chapters dg into the institutional and socioeconomic cycles. Lastly, Part 3 is in four chapters and details the coming storm.

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